I do not claim to be the best source of details about new phenomenology,but sometimes my intuition is good so here are a few points.
- This is not a hoax. It was revealed in an internal memo that was apparently more pubic than it should have been.
- The memo described a bump in diphoton channel at 115 GeV
- This is where SUSY prefers the Higgs, but said Higgs does not give such a high rate of diphoton decays.
- As seen recently bumps can be made to disappear by adjusting the analysis, and this analysis is not completed and approved so it could go away.
- However, the signal seems to be consistent with the old LEP observation and with faint hints in Tevatron results, so this suggests something real.
- If it is real then CMS must see it too. Therefore Tommaso Dorigo must remain silent.
- Although the old LEP result was always considered a hint of a Higgs and this seems likely to be the same thing, we should be open-minded about what it really is.
- On the one hand I want it to be SUSY and this is possible. We expect to hear about variants of SUSY that fit the bill at the next arXiv hep-ph update.
- On the other hand, a high photon coupling suggests a neutral composite particle made of charged constituents, like a meson. I don’t know if this is plausible but someone will be suggesting such possibilities soon.
- Whatever it is, if it is real it is almost certainly Beyond Standard Model and therefore very exciting.
- The data collected by ATLAS is already quite a bit more than the amount used in this analysis and it will increase by a factor in the coming weeks. There will be more news soon.
Update: Well I was wrong about Tommaso remaining silent. He is sceptical because of comparison with Tevatron and also because of look-elsewhere effect, but the Tevatron can just about accommodate this and there is no look-elsewhere effect if you were specifically looking for a state at 115 GeV
Update 23-Apr-2011: Tommaso is now willing to offer $1000 against your $500 that this is not a genuine observation. If you are tempted to take him on you should consider that he may have access to data from CMS that would decisively resolve the question
Update 25-Apr-2011: Channel 4 news UK picked up this story and included a well balanced interview with John Butterworth