New Higgs Combos from ATLAS and CMS

As we wait for the Lepton-Photon conference to begin, ATLAS have released some new Higgs combination plots in a conference note. These have added 2.3/fb in the H->ZZ->4l channel and 1.7/fb in the H->WW->llνν channels.

CMS is also showing plots with 1.7/fb at LP11 now. Things are not going as predicted. Instead of showing a combination of the ATLAS and CMS data from EPS they are showing individual plots with more data. Great news!

There is a press release from CERN that plays down the excesses seen at EPS pointing to the fact that they have diminished with the new data. One reason why they probably do not want to show the combined plot from EPS is that it strengthens the excess and this could lead to premature conclusions.

Compare the ATLAS plot above with the EPS result below to see how the excess has dropped

You have to remember that these excesses are still based on a very small number of events so there are going to be fluctuations like this until more data has been gathered.

Here is the CMS plot shown at LP11 today with a similar story


18 Responses to New Higgs Combos from ATLAS and CMS

  1. Skeptic says:

    Very, very asymmetric update from ATLAS with most channels at 1.1/fb and then WW at 1.7/fb and ZZ ~2/fb. I wonder what’s with that…

    • pp says:

      You realize they had a very limited amount of time to produce these updates? It seems very natural to focus on your most sensitive channels.

      • Skeptic says:

        Assuming you have orthogonal sets of people working on the different channels, I do not see why this should be the case.
        What did CMS do?

    • 1111 says:

      people are just tired and their channels are not particularly relevant to the excess we’ve seen.

      • Skeptic says:

        di-photon is totally relevant and was not updated. The others, ok. But while CMS updated 5 of 8, ATLAS updated 2.

      • Philip Gibbs says:

        I think ATLAS were always more keen than CMS to do the combination. Some people must be disappointed that it wont be shown after putting a lot of work into it.

        ATLAS also used more data in one channel than CMS, suggesting that they decided to try and catch up with CMS updates at the last minute

    • Philip Gibbs says:

      I think that the channels where they showed more data today are relevant to the excesses previously seen.

      My take on what has happened here is that they were ready to show the combined plot and perhaps claim a nice signal, but they looked at some new data and saw less excess so they decided to be more cautious. The change of plans made my predictions all wrong.

      The chances of the excess going down with a bit more data added is a bit less than 50%, so I will not change my position too much. The signal is still promising.

      I will have to redo the combinations but I am busy for a few days so if someone else wants to try it they can.

  2. pp says:

    http://cms.web.cern.ch/cms/News/2011/LP11/

    CMS shows 1.1-1.7 fb-1 results on their website.

  3. […] en Mumbai. Se esperaba que dicho resultado mostrara dicho exceso de forma mucho más visible. Según Philip Gibbs desde el CERN podrían haber preferido no mostrar este resultado combinado para evitar que muchos […]

  4. Tommas Dorigo represent a very interesting graph graph representing the observed and theoretical probability (p-value) that the data are compatible with the background (assuming of course that Higgs is there!) as function of Higgs mass. The theoretical p-value is much smaller than the observed.

    Around 145 GeV the p-value has however a downwards peak extending below 2 sigma (below than 10-2). The theoretical p-value is below 3 sigma and by more than order of magnitude smaller than the experimental value.

    Something might be there but it does not seem to be Higgs! If it is not the Higgs there are no problems since this something would be produced and decay with different rates. To state it again: the presence of a clear deviation which is too small for Higgs could be seen as a direct indication that something else than Higgs is there.

    Recall that TGD predicts that all Higgs components become longitudinal polarizations of massless particles in massivation. Entire scaled up hadron physics would replace Higgs in TGD Universe and guarantee unitarity. The pion of M89 hadron physics should have mass not far from 145 GeV and the above discussed graph enhances the optimism of TGD phanatic;-). It is nice to see the pieces of the puzzle to find their place.

    For more details see my blog posting.

  5. Lawrence B. Crowell says:

    For all the controversy over the combos you worked up last week yours were not too far off the mark. There is some hint of things going on at 140-160GeV, but not enough I should think to make a call.

  6. One or more fundamental assumptions at the heart of particle physics must be egregiously wrong.

    This is why we have the vacuum energy density crisis, and the incompatibility between GR and QM.

    Time for new ideas?

    RLO
    Discrete Scale Relativity

  7. ervin goldfain says:

    Robert,

    New foundational ideas concerning physics above the electroweak scale exist outside mainstream, but are typically dismissed with tags such as “irrelevant”, “uncompelling”, “speculative” and so forth. Most of the time, people harboring these dismissive views are the same as the ones heavily promoting the status quo in hep-th.

    Cheers,

    Ervin

  8. antonio says:

    Nice to see there is no higgs signal so far. Always wondered how people could be really convinced and satisfied by answering the question about mass just with the ad-hoc introduction of an new additional field to force the mass terms in the lagrangians.

    The higgs-mechanism is just a way to avoid the question what “mass” really is. In 10 years people then would introduce a new field which “explains” where the higgs-field comes from and so on. The link to a possible Quantum Gravity is completely ignored in the higgs mechanism, although it is obvious that the inert mass has to be somehow linked to the heavy mass.

  9. algernon says:

    Did the LHC guys say when they plan to present their next update? We’re kinda running out of “big summer conferences”… :)

  10. I think that we must gradually be ready to open our mind so that instead of dividing ourselves to fairy-fielders and non-fairy-fielders we can make the question “What it is if it is not the Higgs?”. This is just what already Hegel taught and thought us to do;-). In Quantum diaries blog at CERN this question was already posed. Probably because those belonging to inner circles are already realizing the implications of the results of ATLAS. Maybe also blog scientists should be ready to do so;-).

    I really *strongly* encourage to spend 10 minutes by studying the graph in Tommaso Dorigo’s blog.

    The downwards tip for the probability that data are compatible with background in a theory with Higgs plotted as a function of Higgs mass is compared to the theoretical curve. The curve has a sharp downwards tip at about 145 GeV -the mass of the CDF bump – but the depth of the tip is by more than a factor ten smaller than required by Higgs. If one believes that the results are accurate enough, the interpretation is clear: something is there but it is not Higgs.

    For one possible answer to the question “What it is?” see my blog posting.

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